By Jeff Louderback
Though he was one of the most consistently good starting pitchers in baseball from 2008 to 2011 – and he has the mix of plus offerings to stake a claim as one of the best arms in the majors – Jon Lester is not an ace.
Sure, he took the mound on Opening Day against the New York Yankees, and on the depth chart he is listed as the No. 1 starter, but the 29-year-old left-hander is really no better than a middle of the rotation arm. If you base your assessment on his last six outings, you would not get an argument by describing him as a borderline No. 5 starter.
Over the weekend at Baltimore, Lester served up five runs and nine hits in five innings, getting the loss and falling to 6-4 after a 6-0 beginning to the 2013 campaign. His ERA in June over three appearances is 8.62.
After a 14-inning marathon win at Tampa Bay the night before, the Red Sox desperately needed a deep and productive outing from Lester on June 11. What he delivered was one of his worst career starts, surrendering seven, runs, eight hits and seven walks in 4.2 innings in a game that Boston lost, 8-3.
Overall, Lester is 6-4 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Opposing hitters have a .251 average against him. Those are palatable numbers for a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but not for a pitcher who is expected to fill a prominent role in the rotation.
It appeared that Lester had put last year’s dismal 9-14 record and 4.82 ERA behind him with the 6-0 start, but now he is struggling to regain his confidence, command and mechanics.
Even with Lester’s struggles, Boston remains atop the American League East. Felix Doubront is pitching better. Ryan Dempster is, too. John Lackey looks like he did when he guided the Angels rotation.
Clay Buchholz has emerged as the true staff ace, but he was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday, so the Red Sox need Lester to step up and give the club strong performances, especially since he is usually opposed by the other team’s ace or No. 2 arm.
Lester’s recent ineffectiveness could have implications for what the Red Sox do as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer. Philadelphia might be receptive to trading Cliff Lee. Though Boston is on the veteran left-hander’s no-trade list, likely he could be talked into granting permission for a deal to happen.
If Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington believes that his club can play deep into October this season, the ownership group is willing to take on Lee’s exorbitant contract and the team is willing to meet the Phillies’ asking price in prospects, a trade for Lee is possible.
If Buchholz recovers quickly, and Lester strings together some quality starts, Cherington might be swayed to not make a major deal for a starting pitcher by the deadline.
Lester’s performance from now to the trade deadline will shape what the Red Sox roster looks like on August 1, and the future of top prospects in the system who could be playing elsewhere if a blockbuster transaction with the Phillies is implemented.
